Dangerous Exponents: A Covid-19 Podcast

Hygiene Theater and Absolutism

Wed, 17 Feb 2021 20:59:49 +0000

How do we fight the pandemic without losing everything we're fighting for? Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik discuss how to focus the fight on what works best, how to avoid an absolutist stand with impossibly high standards, and whether we can abandon the measures that are more like the performance of safety.

Episode reading list:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/briefing/trump-covid-chick-corea-olympics-president.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/americas-bipartisan-covid-19-illiteracy/617368/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/upshot/epidemiologists-virus-survey-.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/pandemic-restrictions-no-logic/617204/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/hygiene-theater-still-waste/617939/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/scourge-hygiene-theater/614599/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/wear-your-mask-and-stop-talking/615796/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/world/asia/covid-cleaning.html

https://nypost.com/2021/01/19/3-out-of-4-riders-say-mta-cleaning-for-covid-makes-them-feel-safer/

The Other Vaccines

Wed, 10 Feb 2021 16:17:46 +0000

The U.S. and Europe have grown accustomed to hearing about vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson. How about vaccines developed in Russia, China, and India that have been administered for weeks or months and are being given to millions of people in dozens of countries? Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik consider the varied approaches to vaccination and ask whether there's a better way.

Episode reading list:

https://zeynep.substack.com/p/why-you-should-take-any-vaccine

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/02/08/the-sputnik-v-vaccine-and-russias-race-to-immunity

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-vaccinations/2021/01/15/342a7282-55c9-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/argentina-is-a-testing-ground-for-moscows-global-vaccine-drive-11610965529

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-06/putin-s-once-scorned-vaccine-is-now-a-favorite-in-pandemic-fight

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-sputnik/2020/11/25/8ebb62fe-186d-11eb-8bda-814ca56e138b_story.html?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_23

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/9/russia-china-seek-to-expand-mena-influence-through-vaccines

Which Places Are Handling the Pandemic Best? How Can We Tell?

Wed, 03 Feb 2021 17:50:08 +0000

Before the novel coronavirus emerged, we had rankings of countries' readiness. Now we have rankings of countries' responses, using all kinds of measures. Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik consider the rankings. Do we know enough to say how well people and their governments have responded? How much does luck play a role? Is it too early for a true assessment?

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Episode reading list:

https://news.yahoo.com/brazils-covid-19-response-worst-023523992.html

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/07/which-country-has-had-the-best-response-to-the-coronavirus.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02596-8

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-03/singapore-s-covid-success-isn-t-easily-replicated

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/03/swedish-model-failed-covid-19

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/sweden-coronavirus-covid-response/

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-22/how-winter-california-covid-19-surge-got-so-bad

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/01/15/ireland-has-one-of-the-worlds-highest-covid-19-infection-rates

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/business/coronavirus-vaccines-global-economy.html

Masking Up

Wed, 27 Jan 2021 18:30:22 +0000

Are masks truly the lowest-cost major measure we can take to curb the pandemic? Why do some people refuse to wear them? And why do most people in many countries still not have high-quality masks? Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik dive into the data and confusing messaging around masks.

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Episode reading list:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/nyregion/nyc-face-masks.html

https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-masks-and-the-experts

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/why-arent-we-wearing-better-masks/617656/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-was-consuming-india-until-nearly-everyone-started-wearing-masks-11609329603

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/31/21198132/coronavirus-covid-face-masks-n95-respirator-ppe-shortage

https://www.aier.org/article/the-question-of-masks/

Everything Is A Tradeoff

Wed, 20 Jan 2021 19:13:23 +0000

From lockdowns to research spending to vaccine prioritization, every pandemic decision involves tradeoffs. Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik ask for better data to decide on tradeoffs, and clearer communication from leaders about how they decided what to trade.

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Episode reading list:

https://www.wired.com/story/group-house-covid-risk-points/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1350416428025962498.html

How Can We Speed Up The Vaccine Rollout?

Tue, 12 Jan 2021 15:45:58 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik ask how well we're doing in administering the Covid-19 vaccine, what we can learn from the country at the top of the scoreboard, and whether it's such a bad idea to use a popular tech platform to schedule inoculations.

As always, there are caveats.

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Episode reading list:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-vaccine-slow-rollout/2021/01/11/2e804898-5100-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1348599933650296832.html

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vaccine-roll-out-israels-circumstances-arent-special-zvi-schreiber/?trackingId=eEZAhJjV98AQo5Zyz7GHnA%3D%3D

Virus Mutations And The Sluggish Vaccine Rollouts

Wed, 06 Jan 2021 16:52:09 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik discuss how the virus variants make the pandemic's exponents all the more dangerous, and consider ways to protect more people from outbreaks fueled by the more-contagious mutations.

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Episode reading list:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/world/covid-mutation.html

Superspreader Events: How To Find Them And Stop Them

Tue, 22 Dec 2020 15:27:44 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik explore the numbers behind superspreader events. What makes an event a superspreader, how do we know the extent of the spread, and will society change permanently to stop them?

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Episode reading list:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/10/nation/biogen-conference-boston-likely-linked-330000-covid-19-cases-worldwide-researchers-say/

https://gijn.org/2020/10/26/tracking-the-superspreader-events-driving-the-covid-19-pandemic/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/world/asia/india-coronavirus-shramik-specials.html

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/10/22/trumps-campaign-made-stops-nationwide-then-coronavirus-cases-surged/3679534001/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/08/worst-case-scenerios-sturgis-rally-may-be-linked-266000-coronavirus-cases-study-says/

https://slate.com/technology/2020/09/sturgis-rally-covid19-explosion-paper.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012

How Will We Get To Herd Immunity, And How Will We Know We've Gotten There?

Fri, 18 Dec 2020 16:01:38 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik dig into herd immunity: Is there really such a thing, how do we get there, and how will we know we have?

Please let us know what you think of this and other episodes, and what you want us to cover next, in our feedback form:

https://forms.gle/ik7Mifxq7HMrg2nL8

Reading list:

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/herd-immunity-is-not-a-strategy/615967/

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630/

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/2020/12/17/covid-19-vaccines-and-herd-immunity/

Back To School: Is The Return To Classrooms Worth It?

Mon, 14 Dec 2020 16:10:21 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik analyze what's lost and gained when students are kept out of the classroom, and we plead for more data and research on the best way to keep students and staff safe and effective.

All About Vaccines: How We Got Them, And Who Should Get Them First

Wed, 09 Dec 2020 16:48:16 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik discuss the coronavirus vaccines that are making their way into arms around the world as we speak. How did we get them so quickly? How useful are they likely to be? And who should get them first, a nurse or LeBron James?

How R and K Add Up To Dangerous Exponential Pandemic Growth

Thu, 03 Dec 2020 16:50:55 +0000

Co-hosts Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik discuss how small changes and uncertainty in R0, Rt, and K can have big impacts on the pandemic—and the challenges of translating all that into a clear public-health message.

Relevant links:

https://rt.live/

http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/

What Should We Do About Thanksgiving?

Wed, 25 Nov 2020 02:30:03 +0000

In the pilot episode of their new podcast about Covid-19, Jeff Sackmann and Carl Bialik discuss the forthcoming U.S. holiday, Thanksgiving, and the public-health recommendations against big celebratory gatherings. Taking an analytical approach to the virus, Jeff and Carl discuss:

Whether small gatherings are a major source of infection;

How limits to data availability are holding back policy;

How incentives, creativity, and harm reduction could aid the fight